Why the New US-Philippines Agreement Is A Big Deal for Geopolitics in the Area

 by James Curwood

When the US left their bases in the Philippines in 1992, China had a navy with 320 ships and an army with 3,160,000 men while the US had a navy with 480 ships and an army size of 1,920,000 (although smaller they had much more modern and better equipment). However the US is finally coming back home to their former colony in 2023 after a 30 year hiatus and the situation between the two powers has changed drastically in that 30 year time span the US has been away. The US was seen as the world's police force and the world's biggest power since the end of the isolationist policies and World War II. Indeed, it still is and has been the world's largest economy since 1890; in 2023, there are around 750 US bases situated around the world in every continent, which is the most in the world. Compare this to China, which, 30 years ago, was an emerging superpower and was not even in the world's top 10 economies in 1990, was mainly an agricultural nation only just going through an industrial revolution and was seen to be decades behind the US with its military and economy.

Fast forward 30 years and it is an entirely different story. China is now the world's second largest economy and second largest military (only behind the US in both categories) and it is starting to stretch its newly-gained muscles on the world stage with provocations over their perceived ownership of Taiwan and building new sea bases out of their jurisdiction in the South China Sea that threaten other major powers in the South East Asia region, for example Australia, Singapore and, of course, the Philippines. The US has been recently taking more and more steps to combat these Chinese aggressions in the region and there is now a heavy focus on controlling Xi Jinping's government; this is where this new base agreement stems from.

The new base agreement between the US and the Philippines that was announced on 3rd February means that the US have access to build four new bases in the Philippines and are able to station troops, store military equipment and build facilities in those locations and this would bring the total amount of US bases in the Philippines to 9 bases, 3 of which would be located on the northernmost island of Luzon. This is a big step for the geopolitics in the region and significant, as the island of Luzon is only 93 miles away from the Chinese mainland and only 200 miles away from Taiwan and faces the South China Sea and the heavily contested Scarborough Shoal. This is key as Taiwan is a big target for any future Beijing aggression, as they are intending to invade and annex Taiwan. So, these new bases could act as a deterrent to China and make sure they do not make any more moves for Taiwan, or anyone else, as these bases would act as a major staging ground for US troops, planes and ships for a possibly swift counter attack on China if they do not make right on their promise to recapture Taiwan which China desperately does not want as it could threaten their success.

China have already condemned the agreement between the two, with a spokeswoman accusing the United States of threatening regional peace and stability with its announcement and actions, which is ironic as China has been building illegal bases out of atolls and reefs in the South China Sea out of its legal jurisdiction in the South China Sea under the argument of the 9 Dash Line, and has fully militarised at least7 of these bases which is a direct threat to regional peace and stability which they accuse the US of breaking. This further worsens the relations between the two superpowers, which have definitely seen better days and in reaction to this announcement a Chinese spy balloon has been sighted over Montana, pushing the relationship further from the point of no return. So, yes, I think this deal between these two countries is a big deal and also a good deal as it helps prevent Chinese aggression and keeps peace. The US defence minister, Lloyd Austin, also agrees and said that the new deal was "a big deal, a really big deal."