'Long Corbyn': Scourge or Scapegoat?

 by Robin Cavusoglu


The local elections on Thursday were a disaster for Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party. Losing over 50 council seats in England alone, with more results yet to be declared, and shrinking their 3600-vote majority in Hartlepool to a 7000-vote loss, the public roundly rejected Labour's newest iteration. Rather conveniently, this cataclysmic loss has not been attributed to poor campaigning by candidates, or an unclear objective from Starmer, but, perhaps surprisingly, the effect of Jeremy Corbyn. From Lord Mandelson blaming 'Covid and Corbyn'[1], to Shadow Minister Steve Reed saying 'people don't understand the party has changed'[2], Labour talking-heads seem to believe that the lingering reputation of Corbyn is to blame for the recent local losses.

To judge whether this criticism is valid, it is worth revisiting Corbyn's premiership. In 2017, his energising campaign, 'for the many, not the few', returned 30 new seats, increasing Labour's vote share to 40%. This was despite disproportionately negative media coverage[3], a motion of no-confidence from the right of his party, an effort to 'undermine Corbyn every single day'[4] from Mandelson and his ilk, and initially high approval ratings for his rival, Theresa May[5]. This criticism persisted in 2019, but this time resulted in a massive loss. While he gained a higher proportion of the vote than Miliband and Brown, Corbyn's Labour Party returned the lowest number of seats since 1983; these losses were concentrated in the North of England. Yet, his views such as those regarding broadband, derided by the popular press as 'broadband communism'[6], commanded support in the region both then and now, with 69% of Hartlepudlians supporting free broadband in 2021[7]. The cause of this election defeat in 2019 was the imminent question of Brexit. The conflict between the initial policy of 'respecting the result' and repeated demands for a second referendum from hard Remainers in the party, including then-Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer, drove down Corbyn's approval ratings: YouGov data suggests 'Brexit indecisiveness' caused frustration in the minds of the electorate[8] and doomed him in Brexit-supporting areas. As the leader of Labour, this was Corbyn's fault. He appointed staunch Remainers in major Cabinet roles and flip-flopped on whether to accept the people's vote, creating distrust in Corbyn amongst many Leave voters. Learning from this indecision, one might expect a more constructive, consistent leadership that would do away with the dithering of the past.

Enter Starmer, a man of minimal charisma. His initial promise of a robust opposition to the Tories has yet to materialise. Instead, he has abstained on policing and overseas torture legislation, purged Corbyn from the party, Rebecca Long-Bailey and Nadia Whittome from his Shadow Cabinet and prevented socialist councillors from standing on Thursday. Regrettably, he called BLM a 'moment'[9], and delayed the publication of the Forde Report into anti-Black bullying from the right of the party[10]. His most reported time in opposition came with his repetition of "sleaze" in a dry monotone, faintly hinting at an urgent need for transparency. He has managed to disillusion and disenfranchise voters in both the new and old working-class: the younger so-called 'Corbynistas', who focus more on pacifism and anti-racism, and the Old Labour voice, who emphasise the revitalisation of local communities. Who does Sir Keir Starmer appeal to? The fact that his most succinct message, before the four elections on Thursday 6 May, was "There are four elections on Thursday 6 May" (see picture) portrays his inability to connect with the electorate on pressing issues in the same way Corbyn had done. Perched on a metal bike next to Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, he cut a sorry figure indeed. Love him or loathe him, Corbyn broke through the noise with radical policies and stirred up an audience in a way Keir Starmer's empty flag-waving failed to do. And while there is merit in suggesting Starmer intended to start Labour on a clean slate, especially after allegations of antisemitism against Corbyn, the clearout of Corbyn and his associates have only created a more factional party. NHS doctor Paul Williams, the Labour candidate for Hartlepool, was similarly uninspiring; like Starmer, he was a Remain supporter, in a constituency where 70% of people voted Leave. Therefore, it is not surprising that only 29% of voters in Hartlepool chose Labour, a loss of 9% compared to 2019, with the Tories earning 52%. By contrast, local independent candidate Samantha Lee campaigned on revitalising the Hartlepool economy, returning 10% of the vote with no political experience. The trend continues: Labour's vote share decreased in every general election in Hartlepool since 1997, bar 2017. Constantly ignored by the mainstream, failed by empty messages of 'hope' and 'change' under New Labour, it was no shock that the more populist appeal of self-determination for the community became far more attractive for Hartlepool. This flow from Labour to UKIP, then to the Brexit Party, and subsequently to the Tories and even local independents, was inevitable; the so-called 'Westminster elite' have all but neglected the electorate of Hartlepool and cities like it. In the words of Starmer himself, Labour has 'lost its connection'[11] to working people. Moreover, this tally fails to account for the worrying fall in turnout across the country; both major parties have such awful records in the eyes of citizens, that they would prefer not to participate at all. Given that this pattern is continuing in councils around the country, it is clear that Labour's current electoral strategy is a recipe for failure.

Labour must also tackle the sense of superiority from certain factions of the party. After the Tories won Hartlepool, 'Stockholm Syndrome' began trending on Twitter, implying the city willingly voted for its demise. Even Starmer is guilty of this: before the byelection, he visited Hartlepool, presumably doing little to promote Paul Williams, to eat at a pub. In the words of a local reacting to this campaigning, 'if he thinks that we eat fish and chips, drink pints, with cloth caps on, he's got the wrong people'[12]. This haughtiness pushes the view that the working class in the North cannot think for themselves; that hollow gestures are enough to convince them to vote a certain way. This belittling of the working class peaked during Brexit, where pundits would question the intelligence of those who 'fell for the propaganda', which only exacerbated Brexit supporters' dissatisfaction with the mainstream political sphere. Arguably, by also aiming to block out those who make a material attempt to connect to the party's core, such as Corbyn, it seems this sector of Labour is the one that seeks to divide the party, not necessarily the left.

There are some silver linings for Labour following Thursday. After shifting to the left following his failure in the 2015 Labour leadership election, Andy Burnham looks set to win re-election as the Metro Mayor of Manchester; his reputation also appears to be creating a coattail effect for Labour in Greater Manchester's local councils. Momentum's Mark Drakeford returned half of the seats in the Welsh Senedd, tied for Labour's best result ever. The bold promises for a council-run bank and publicly-owned cinema led Labour to keep all its Preston seats. Unsurprisingly, the successful candidates were the ones who managed to reconcile social and economic progression by providing a socialist alternative. Perhaps Labour should stop blaming left-wing policies and shaming the working class; instead, the key to success is a progressive attitude and rigorous platform that can appeal to the whole electorate.

 

[1] Rodgers, H. (2021). Former Hartlepool MP Peter Mandelson says Labour loss 'about Corbyn not Brexit'. The Herald. https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19285749.former-hartlepool-mp-peter-mandelson-says-labour-loss-about-corbyn-not-brexit/

 [2] Reed, S. (2021). BBC Breakfast. BBC https://twitter.com/bbcbreakfast/status/1390553105184530433

 [3] Cammaerts, B. (2016). Journalistic Representations of Jeremy Corbyn in the British Press. LSE.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/media-and-communications/research/research-projects/representations-of-jeremy-corbyn

 [4] Mason, R. and Elgot, J. (2017). Peter Mandelson: I try to undermine Jeremy Corbyn 'every single day'. The Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/21/peter-mandelson-i-try-to-undermine-jeremy-corbyn-every-day

 [5] Smith, M. (2018). Theresa May's favourability score plummets to new low. YouGov. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/07/12/theresa-mays-favourability-score-plummets-new-low

 [6] Coburn, J. (2019). Politics Live. BBC. https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1195323139019853824

 [7] Shoben, C. (2021). First Hartlepool Phone Poll has Conservatives in driving seat. Survation. https://www.survation.com/first-hartlepool-phone-poll-has-conservatives-in-driving-seat/

 [8] Curtis, C. (2019). Brexit indecisiveness is seriously damaging Corbyn. YouGov. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/01/30/brexit-indecisiveness-seriously-damaging-corbyn

 [9] Chappell, E. (2020). Starmer says he regrets calling Black Lives Matter movement a 'moment'. LabourList. https://labourlist.org/2020/07/starmer-says-he-regrets-calling-black-lives-matter-movement-a-moment/

 [10] Gayle, D. (2021). Forde inquiry delay suggests Labour not serious on racism, black MPs say.

The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/12/forde-inquiry-delay-suggests-labour-not-serious-on-racism-black-mps-say

 [11] Stewart, H. and Walker, P. (2021). Keir Starmer concedes Labour has lost the trust of working people. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/07/keir-starmer-labour-spent-too-long-talking-ourselves

 [12] (2021). BBC Newsnight. BBC.


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