by Simon Lemieux
(image: Tyler Merbler, Wiki Commons))
And the award for most overworked word in 2020-21 goes to…
‘unprecedented’. COVID pandemic (tick), last minute Brexit trade deals (tick),
unfounded claims of electoral fraud and stolen votes in the US election (tick),
Trump recorded on tape telling an election official in Georgia to ‘find’ more
votes (tick) and finally, hundreds of far right Trump supporters/QAnon
conspiracists invading the US Capitol to disrupt the counting of the
presidential votes (tick, tick). By all
measures what we’ve been witnessing not least Stateside politically, is well,
just unprecedented. And a runner up award for most reliable political rule at
the moment is Harold Wilson’s old dictum, ‘A week is a long time in politics’.
So much has happened since I penned some thoughts last week, that it only seems
fair to provide an update. Firstly, I don’t think my fundamental interpretation
that Trump’s presidency will be of less lasting significance needs to change,
but it does beg some further analysis. So here goes….
(image: Tyler Merbler, Wiki Commons)
There has been much discussion and angst not only about how
the mob was able to invade this sacred citadel of American democracy and the
response of law enforcement officials, but also talk of an attempted coup.
Above, what made this so shocking and disturbing was that earlier that day
addressing a large and lawful rally, Trump had energised the faithful not to accept
the result. His sidekick, Giuliani who at least this time found the right place
to deliver his words of wisdom, had urged ‘trial by combat’, an interesting
legal approach more akin to the Middle Ages, perhaps he should have advocated
trial by ordeal and holding a red hot piece of metal instead – then let’s see
if the election fraud claims were true or false. Then the main act, make no
mistake, this was not crowd calming measures, delivered a call NOT to regroup and refight in 2022 and 2024 using
the weapon of the ballot box.
It was rather a call to arms, and too many of his supporters
had come suitably prepared, “We’re going to walk down Pennsylvania
Avenue," Trump said. "And we’re going to the Capitol and we’re going
to try ... and give our Republicans, the weak ones, because the strong ones
don’t need any of our help, we’re going to try and give them the kind of pride
and boldness that they need to take back our country." Interesting though,
that Trump himself didn’t lead the charge. Like the (inaccurate) caricature of
the Great War generals, he was some way behind the front line and the
barricades, wielding not a flag or a gun but probably his mobile phone. I do
hope the cell phone he used for all those Tweets gets donated to the Museum of
American History but somehow I doubt altruism like empathy is part of his DNA.
Or if donating it, he’d demand to write the caption….
The point should not
be lost, here was the POTUS rallying his own troops to storm the Bastille, but
not to release prisoners but to ‘scare the swamp’. Yep, truly unprecedented.
Imagine Obama addressing a #BLM rally and inciting a march on Congress by those
intent on violent action. Nope, me neither. So what on earth to make of it,
where to begin and what parallels to make.
A noose erected outside the Capitol this week
(image Tyler Merbler, Wiki Commons)
Let’s start with Hitler. Now the serious and significant
point is that Trump is no Hitler. I genuinely don’t believe he condones
genocide based on race or political viewpoint, nor does he want to expand US
territory by embarking on a global war. But beyond those obvious differences,
it remains an interesting case for comparison. Some have likened the temporary
takeover of the Capitol to the failed Munich putsch in 1924, and we all know
what happened in 1933 and beyond folks. The suggestion is, that this is the
beginning not the end of the insurrection. Wrong! Why? Because, if there is a
valid historical parallel to be made with der Fuhrer, it is 1945 not 1924.
Where I do see valid parallels is the bunkered down Hitler in Berlin. The Second
World War is lost, the Democrats, sorry Russians, are encircling though unlike
Trump the Nazis never lost Georgia as they never conquered (the SSR) Georgia in
the first place. What we have here is a leader deluded and refusing to accept
defeat. A political genius who indeed ‘achieved’ much against the odds
conquering most of western Europe by 1941/winning the Republican nomination and
subsequent general election against most odds, refusing to contemplate the defeat
staring him in the face, only days away. Stubbornness, certitude and
self-assurance no longer virtues but vices. Even more so, the friendly critics
have their suggestions angrily rebuffed, patriots have become traitors. The
propaganda message continues to the point of self-destruction, by suicide/impeachment
or at the very least, consigned to presidential historiographical Hades. Watch
some scenes from the movie ‘Downfall’, the Trump parodies seem only too real.
This is a president in the last desperate throws of his dice and time in office,
searching desperately for the last levers of power. Can the senate or VP refuse
to certify the election, pleaseeee…. The remaining faithful, massage the ego of
their master. Those who have futures and careers ahead of them, scramble for
the life rafts. They like Peter in the garden of Gethsemane seek to deny their
lord and master, “I do not know what/who you are talking about.” Unlike Peter,
they will not later repent of their disloyalty, but instead seek to rebrand and
reinvent themselves, perhaps as ‘Trumpists without Trump’, followers without a discredited
fake messiah.
So, why is Trumpism on its last legs? In essence because
democracy has and will prevail in the US. Biden will become president, the
Democrats will control Congress, and Trump’s hold on the Republican party has
slipped. Fellow travellers are already surfacing, repudiating his latest
action, the Rubicon has been crossed by many who previously served him loyally.
Tom Cotton, a strongly pro-Trump senator from Arkansas for example, alongside
more long-time critics such as Romney and Murkowski. And then look at the
Cabinet resignations, Elaine Chao (Transportation) who is incidentally Mitch
McConnell’s wife and Betsy DeVos (Education). Both long-time Cabinet members,
and then Bill Barr his former Attorney-General. Like the professional,
patriotic and nationalist generals of Wehrmacht, they signed up to Trumpism
probably holding their noses, when it did seem to be working and more
importantly winning. Now the devastation is apparent and not just in the
Capitol. The loss of the two Georgia Senate races will have hit hard. They
should have been home runs, Republicans energised to check Biden and his
dangerous liberals in Congress. Instead, Georgia for the first time in at least
two decades will be represented by Democrat senators. Election numbers and
defeat here, will have sobered up many if not most mainstream Republicans from
flirting with populism and demagoguery.
Make no mistake, many of the actual policies of Trump are
valid and legitimate areas for political debate: pro-life, clamping down on illegal
immigration, an America First foreign policy, gun rights and deep qualms over
aspects of #BLM and racial justice. Americans were divided over these issues
and others, before 2016 and arguably even more so now. These debates will not
go away, why should they in a mature democracy? But the ground rules and
validity of the results are basis and foundations without which democracy can
not be played out. If we were truly paralleling contemporary events, dreadful
as they are, with inter Germany, Trump would already have Pelosi, Harris, Biden
and probably Bush and Romney too in Dachau*, the ‘fake media’ would have been
shut down and a more securely loyal Fox News beamed out as the dominant news
channel rivalled only by OANN (One America News Network). Twitter and Facebook
would be under federal government ownership and the National Guard commanded by
bona fide loyal Trump followers. The cult would have violated and rewritten the
Constitution not just the physical building of the Capitol. Congress would have
passed constitutional amendments making Trump president for as long as the
‘national emergency’ was in place. That did not happen, things are bad but not
irreparably damaged. Smashed glass will be replaced, and Trumpism as such will
be perhaps resemble the last days of segregation and Wallace in 68, a virus that
becomes less virulent. In essence, its ideas and principles will mutate and
influence right wing American politics for some considerable time, and that is
fair enough. Everyone is entitled to their opinions and political policies, but
they will be fought solely through the ballot box. The coup, much like the
failed ‘proper coup’ in Russia in 1991 by hard-line communist critics of the
reforming soviet leader, Gorbachev, will look like a final desperate gasp from
a previous era. Though Putin ultimately emerged from the ruins of the
USSR/Russian Federation so history does not always provide reassuring
precedents, but the US and Russia are fundamentally different so let’s not get
too anxious.
*The reference to Dachau is not glib or facetious. The
concentration camp at Dachau was initially used primarily to house political
opponents of the Nazi regime from the start of Hitler’s time in power,
communists, trade unionists, socialists, members of the intelligentsia etc.
Only later were many of its inmates, the overwhelming majority Jews, incarcerated as part of the Final
Solution.
So, all in all, a chilling week for US democracy, but like
the current pandemic, one with hope at the end of the tunnel. Just as we are
not destined to remain homebound in lockdown forever, American democracy and
its Constitution have survived this challenge, scarring and frightening as it
may appear. The GOP will rise again, emboldened by some of the Trump legacy but
ditching the crude and anti-democratic bits. And the Democrats will oppose
them, and all that’s all good; it’s called democracy stupid.
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