by Simon Lemieux
So as memories of 2020 fade away, if they ever will, we
welcome in a socially distanced, for now, 2021. We also bid farewell to
President Trump and British membership of the EU. Whether it is goodbye and
good riddance to just one/both or neither depends on your own political
outlook, and don’t worry: I’m not going to force feed anyone my own opinions
here on either topic. What I do want to do is explore necessarily rather
superficially, is how far and to what extent valid comparisons can be made
between the two events in an objective if somewhat slightly light-hearted a
way. Comparative politics and history is always fascinating yet also
problematic, we often try to force similarities or differences that don’t stand
up to more rigorous scrutiny. So bear with, hold fast and let’s go for a ride
on the rollercoaster that is both Brexit and Trump.
And actually, that is the first valid comparison; neither subject has spared us thrills, intrigues and cliff-hangers. Like soap operas with storylines that leave us dangling, both sagas have been replete with their fair share of drama. Would May’s deal pass (answer – no), would a newly resurgent parliament effectively revoke the Brexit vote (again, no), would Brexit ever get done (yes) and would there be a deal (yes, again). Like all good soaps it was played out to the very end. Unlike the soaps, this drama was real and will directly impact all our lives from pet passports to immigration via of course fishing. The British Constitution is sometimes said to resemble an ‘elective dictatorship’, to which the answer can only be: sometimes, and only with a strong Commons majority. And not really at all in foreign policy and international trade, where the problem is not the Macmillanesque ‘events, dear boy, events’ but ‘people, dear boy, people’, and in this case, foreigners, EU negotiators, iron chancellors and Gallic intransigents (or should that read, ‘standing up for French national interests?) et al.
Now you might well be forgiven for thinking that Trump’s entire presidency has been one long drama/soap opera: West Wing meets The Thick of It with additional tweets and a dose of reality celebrity television thrown in for bon measure. This was four years that ‘kept on giving’. Did he really say that? Did he seriously tweet on 12th December 2019 that ‘Greta (Thunberg) must work on her Anger Management problem, then go to a good old fashioned movie with a friend! Chill Greta, Chill!’ And let’s not forget his nicknames for enemies both within and without the US – Sleepy Joe, Low Energy Jeb (Bush), Little Rocketman, Lyin Ted (Cruz - a conservative senator from his own party it should be added), the list is endless……zzzzz.
However, drama and uncertainties hallmarked
this presidency pock-marked by the unexpected (Kim n Trump love-in and brief
bromance), the deliberately (?) nuanced (‘there were very fine people on both
sides’) in reference to the demonstrations at Charlottesville over Confederacy
statues, racial justice and that also attracted a far-right counter-protest
among other attendees) or the plain incomprehensible – ‘stand back and stand
by’ he said to the far-right hate group the Proud Boys. In short, four years of
Trump has never been dull or even predictable. Even the final closure of the
2020 election saw intrigue and drama: stolen votes, fraudulent votes, court
challenges. Yet even here the uber bizarre and unbelievable know no bounds.
That Giuliani press conference at the ‘wrong’ Four Seasons: not the hotel in
Philadelphia, but the garden centre near the sex shop and the crematorium.
(okay fake photo with added monolith but hey, who knows, maybe it was there. It is possible!)
Being America though, capitalism trumps everything, more or
less. Four Seasons Total Landscaping moved swiftly to capitalise on the
interest. The company expanded its merchandise range to include tree ornaments,
sweaters, hoodies, and face masks - and made a shedload. Even at the eleventh
hour, there was a final plot twist; would Trump veto a vital defence bill (yes),
would his veto be overturned (yes). Oh yes, and in an issue of parallel drama, both Trump and Johnson contracted COVID midway through their election
campaign/Brexit negotiations. Yes, this really is the stuff of soap operas, if
it wasn’t also very real and vital…
So on the more ‘style and story’ level, we have twin events,
both taking the form of nail-biting dramas where the prime actors in 2019-2020
were both men who had their own highly personalised modes of communication.
Bland and grey are not relevant adjectives that could apply to either leader. A
suitable case for comparison for sure.
If we turn to the support for both Trump and Brexit we again find some mirror images, the ‘P’ word – populism. Both causes found the bulk of their support from similar quarters. As the graphs below show, age is a pretty good indicator (the most predictable perhaps?) of determining one’s stance on both Trump and Brexit.
If there was space, we could also analyse gender, ethnicity, education etc, but sticking with age and populism…. Perhaps a more accurate term is ‘revivalism’. Both causes appeal to a sense of faded glory (once everything was made in the US not China, once we controlled our own fish stocks etc) whilst promising a new dawn: ‘Make America Great Again’, ‘Taking Back Control’. Fears about large-scale and uncontrollable immigration also featured large.
So, hope and fear were present, but, perhaps more importantly, both represent a stand against what might commonly be called the
intellectual/business/political establishment. This was the Peasants’ Revolt
x2, the ‘silent majority’ in Nixonspeak, though strictly only a majority of
course in the UK and then only in England and Wales. Trump lost the popular
vote twice in 2016 and 2020. A vital check and balance on the arrogance,
smugness and disconnectedness of comfortable elites, or a prime example of how demagogues
and half truths can manipulate the masses in an age of both social media and
mass democracy. You pays your money and…
in fact, there is truth in both narratives, and the liberal
left/progressives are not above abusing social media either. Witness the ‘dash
to wokeness’ and willingness to ‘cancel’ those who dare to question or query.
‘Traitors’ are everywhere it seems, so apparently is ‘truth’ and ‘salvation’.
The middle ground, consensus and reasoned debate are shrinking perhaps faster
than Artic icecaps. But then there was ‘no platforming’ back in my student
days. I hated it then, I hate it even more now. Yes, age brings wisdom,
perhaps, or is it just a gilded and distorted view of the past?
But before we see Brexit and Trumpism as ‘two halves of the
same walnut’ (Truman quote – IGCSE historians please take note: he was
referring to Marshall Aid and the Truman doctrine), let’s do a quick reality
check. Trump like all modern US presidents will leave little by way of a
lasting legacy. Yes, a more conservative Supreme Court and federal judiciary
for sure, but not much else perhaps. The fundamentals of much of his policies and
actions can be stopped and reversed. Nuclear deals can be resumed, climate
accords re-entered, federal executions stopped again, and transgender Americans
let back into the armed forces. Presidents might also Tweet politely again.
Like the wild teenage party (which I never attended, would never condone etc),
the house has been trashed, the liquor cabinet raided, a slightly sweet smell
still reeks in the air and the neighbours called the police. But the house can
be largely restored, redecorated; it was insured after all against accidental
damage. Few expected Trump to win, or perhaps it was an ‘act of God’ (in which
case my insurance parallel falls). In the USA, that insurance is called the US
Constitution. Above all, remember that Trump did not come from nowhere, there were
deep partisan divides well before 2016 with the attendant racial and cultural
tensions. What Trump did was to catalyse and pour gasoline on the pyre of
political decency and compromise.
But of Brexit, ‘What shall we speak?’ Here, my point is that
Brexit really does mark a turning point in British history. It will impact
economics, trade, constitutional sovereignty and the lives of millions of
ordinary people long term. We have probably had a lucky escape from/missed the vital
bus to, a United States of Europe. Brexit will catalyse European integration in
areas like defence and shared debt like nothing else, well perhaps other than COVID.
The EU might do well to reflect on Benjamin Franklin’s famous quote following
the culmination of the Founding Father’s convention in Philadelphia (held in
Independence Hall not the Four Seasons, either location). The EU now ‘Has a
Union if they can keep it.’ Meanwhile, we have more freedom and opportunities
as a nation, and less privileges of membership of a powerful club, though did
we ever make the most of our hefty annual subscription? Note to self: cancel
trial Amazon Prime membership…. How it will play out is anyone’s guess, but it
won’t be easy to reverse even if we want to, although whither now Scotland and
Northern Ireland? This irreversibility perhaps is the greatest and deepest contrast with the
Trump presidency. Just as well there was a clear if narrow majority in favour
of withdrawal, and the Remainers couldn’t play the ‘stolen votes’ card and
claim a fraudulent result. We have a democracy and a more constitutionally
sovereign nation, but can we keep it both united and ‘happy and glorious’? That
is the question for 2021 and beyond.
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