US Election:Where Is It Heading?

by Felix Johnson

Bernie Sanders (Wiki Commons)

With Iowa and New Hampshire over, the US primaries now go relatively quiet until Super Tuesday on March 3rd, with 14 being held, and over a quarter of pledged delegates up for grabs. Each state allocates delegates to nominees, varying by how their performance in primaries in the state, and the size of the state. 

States may use caucuses (like Iowa) or standard votes (New Hampshire) for this primary. Caucuses are far more complex than a simple vote - attendees gather at a certain choose a first choice, before having to realign as weak candidates are eliminated. The specific timing, and length of time required can make these a particular hassle to turn out to, particularly for those with dependent children, or other limitations.  

Unfortunately, this year’s primaries have been far from simple. In Iowa, the use of a relatively untested app for recording and sending data wreaked havoc, delaying results by half a week. There have subsequently been questions around the legitimacy of the results, with multiple campaigns claiming irregularities. This problem is particularly worsened as it was such a tight race, as even small corruptions of results can have major effects.

In Iowa, Pete Buttigieg managed a major upset, winning a majority of SDEs (state delegate equivalents, representing the outcomes of caucuses across the state), with Bernie Sanders coming in second. However, the margin on SDEs was only 3 - 500 to 497, with 0.1% separating them. Furthermore, Sanders won both the first and final alignment popular votes - by 6,000 and 2,000 respectively. This led to disputes over who could claim victory. While many claimed a victory for Buttigieg, organisations like the Associated Press refused to call a winner.

This was understandable - the overall result was both Sanders and Buttigieg held 12 pledged delegates (the important ones). Though Sanders won the popular vote by a much greater margin than Pete won SDEs, a draw is an acceptable outcome - though one may criticise Buttigieg for claiming victory after spending much time on the campaign trail talking of his favouring of the popular vote, and how he thinks it should be the real determinant of outcomes. 

However, further reassessment of results by the Iowa Democratic Party resulted in Buttigieg being awarded another pledged delegate, meaning he now led Sanders. This also came with no change to the margins of SDEs or the popular vote. This change has been criticised as a misrepresentation of results, and undemocratic. 

New Hampshire as a vote was uneventful, but its results failed to soothe issues borne of Iowa. Sanders again took the popular vote, this time by ~4,000, or 1.3%, and was the undisputed winner, with Buttigieg following. However, the two again drew on pledged delegates, with 9 apiece. With the change in Iowa’s allocation, it means Buttigieg leads on delegates despite losing both popular votes. This again raises questions about the democratic nature of the primary system. 

New Hampshire failed to be the turning point hoped for by Joe Biden, former Vice President, who took only 8.4% of the vote, and no delegates (for reference, Sanders took 25.7%). This came after what he called a ‘gut-punch’ in Iowa, where he took only 15.8% of SDEs, and 13.8% of the vote. Such poor results are troubling for the man many thought of as a front runner, given his name recognition and moderate stances. Part of his underperformance may be his similarity to others in policy. In Iowa, Buttigieg saw a rise of ~4% in his popular vote between the first and final votes, while Biden’s fell. This may suggest Buttigieg has attracted the votes of moderates who many previously assumed would have chosen Biden. New Hampshire was also a welcome surprise for Amy Klobuchar, who surpassed many expectations to take 19.8% of the vote, despite her limited performance in previous polling, and limited name recognition compared to her opponents. 

But the race is far from over with 50 states to go. Sanders leads the popular vote nationally by all estimations, and is projected to win a majority of states. However the rise of Buttigieg was overlooked, and many projections have been slowly adjusting. Perhaps Buttigieg will surpass Sanders in unexpected areas, or Sanders’ victories or majorities will be suppressed and to little effect (as they have as of yet). Only the results will tell.