The Corona Virus – How Worried Should We Be?

by Sophie Mitchell

Recently there has been a lot of media attention around the outbreak of the 2019-nCoV, a new virus which has currently (29/1/2020) killed 56 people and infected over 2000. There is much panic that this could soon become a global epidemic, threatening to infect countries across the globe. Yet, is this panic warranted or rather an attempt by the media to cause mass spread fear and panic.

The virus itself comes from a group of viruses known as the coronavirus, from the Latin corona, meaning crown. There are only 6 known coronaviruses which are known to infect humans, one of which is the common cold. They can range from mild symptoms to death, and the 2019-nCoV appears to be somewhere in between. However, it brings back memories of the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, which killed 775 people and infected 8273. The Chinese government was accused of covering up the outbreak, not revealing the truth until lots of people had succumbed to the disease. Luckily, the 2019-nCoV appears to be milder than the SARS outbreak, and it is hoped that China’s measures to contain the virus will help prevent its spread.

China quarantined the city of Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak. This means all flights were stopped in and out of the city amongst other forms of public transport. With Chinese New Year, there were fears that the mass movement of people would cause a pandemic. However, China has now effectively quarantined 30 million people, with the province of Hubei now having mass border checks. However, there are fears it is too little too late.

It has recently come out that during the incubation period, which can range from one to fourteen days, people can spread the virus. That means people with no symptoms can still spread the disease. In this way, there are fears that it is already present in much larger numbers across China, much more than previously reported. Hospitals in Wuhan are so overstretched that they cannot test people for the illness, rather choosing just to treat anyone with any of the symptoms in a bid to prevent it from being deadly. Therefore, people are afraid the number is much larger than reported.

In the grand scheme of things, however, is all this panic necessary? The widespread publication of symptoms of the disease is more likely leading to hysteria, people who are not ill being influenced by the media into believing they have symptoms. They then go to hospitals for treatment where they can contract the virus from people who actually have it. There are people in remote corners of the world who fear they have the virus, despite not being near anyone from Wuhan or travelling to china recently. Therefore, it could be argued that the media are rather spreading panic, rather than informing the public. The current 56 deaths out of 2007 cases leaves the 2019-nCoV with a 3% death rate, meaning that 3 people in 100 who contract the disease will likely unfortunately die. However, currently, the disease has only been fatal in people with pre-existing conditions, such as hypertension or COPD or in the elderly, very young or the pregnant. Therefore, it is believed that many should be able to overcome the disease with rest and treatment such as NSAIDs.

While there may be fears that the virus could mutate and become deadly, so far, researchers believe this has not happened. Furthermore, deadly viruses tend to die out much quicker than ones that cause mild symptoms are they kill off their host before spreading. In this way, panic should be less widespread. The WHO has yet to declare A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), something it did with Ebola, Swine Flu, Polio and the Zika virus. This means it is rather an emergency in China, but not yet one for the global community.

China dealt with the SARS outbreak, and their quick measures have shown that they have learnt from it. Therefore, as a global community, we must remain vigilant. Furthermore, we must not trust what we see on social media. So much false information is being spread and adding to the panic. John Hopkins has created an interactive map to track the outbreak, using up-to-date information from trusted sources. This is one of the best ways to keep on top of any current news.

Furthermore, if the 2019-nCoV does reach the UK, basic hygiene measures should help in the prevention of the spread. These include washing your hands with hot soapy water for 40-60 seconds, not touching your mouth or face with unwashed hands, cooking meat and animal products thoroughly and wearing a mask if you are sick. Wearing surgical masks while not ill is unlikely to protect against the virus, and simple hygiene measures should be much more effective. Therefore, currently, it appears there is little need to panic, rather rely on the news and hope that China can control and reduce the spread, like with SARS.