What is Different About the December 2019 General Election?

by Simon Lemieux

How does that well-known Christmas song go, something along the lines of ‘So this is Christmas, another election over, a new one just begun…’ Well not quite the lyrics of course, but it perhaps it sums up many attitudes towards elections and campaigns at the moment. We had the 2015 general election, a Brexit referendum in 2016, another general election in 2017, and now we go to the polls again in the December chill. So, what is different and distinct about #election2019?

Firstly, the timing; our first December general election since 1923. Generally, elections have been held in the spring, summer or autumn. Longer days, brighter weather and no distractions from the festive season. Arguably the winter weather might depress turnout but among whom? Possibly older voters worried about ice on the pavements and the cold outdoors, which could be bad news for the Conservatives. Or possibly not. Senior urban voters (SUVs for short – see how easy it is to steal an acronym) might well turn out anyhow, certainly of all demographics they are the most likely to vote. Those in rural areas doubtless frequently drive or get driven, to their polling station in any case. And what of student voters, young progressive Remainers, will they be disenfranchised? Again no, probably not. Those that are politically aware will have already registered both in their hometown and their university town. Will the absence of much of the student vote affect the outcome in university dominated constituencies such as Oxford West and Abingdon, Cambridge or Durham? No, probably not as these are not generally Tory/Brexit inclined seats currently. In essence, the student vote might well be diluted into hundreds of constituencies around the country but in key marginals could still be important. Portsmouth South might be interesting as there is some suggestion that the student vote help propel Labour MP Stephen Morgan to an unexpected victory in 2017. 

Secondly, we have the unprecedented existence (well before 1914 anyhow, when there was the Li-Lab pact) of an electoral alliance involving the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru. The pact applies to 60 constituencies where one party (the one with the best chance of victory) will have a free run against the Tories and Labour in order to avoid splitting the Remain vote. Don’t underestimate this tactic. All three parties probably appeal to roughly similar voter profiles; social and political progressives, hot (only via renewable sources naturally) on environmental issues and passionately pro-EU. On the other side of the fence, or should that be channel, it remains to be seen how far Farage’s Brexit Party will stand aside for the Conservatives. We can firmly rule out any formal pact (mainly because the PM has) but at a local level might we see gaps in the candidate list or at least, unenthusiastic campaigning by the Brexit Party. It is a struggle between Brexiteer purists and pragmatists. In closely contested seats, it could cost the Tories a handful of MPs. If the Brexit Party wins any seats, I’ll eat my… If the Conservatives lose out on some seats because of a few thousand votes for the Farage fan club, then I won’t be in the least surprised.

So the third difference…. the main election issues. Normally, it is ‘the economy stupid’ or a variant of that. Now of course, health, education and taxes will all be there, but you can’t escape the B word. Yes, whatever your thoughts about a second vote, a Peoples’ Vote, this election is in effect a re-run of the referendum, and in Scotland also of Indyref. We (at last!) seem to have three main options on the table. The Remainers and Revokers (Lib Dems, Greens, PC and SNP) who will stop Brexit. Yes, the people made a mistake in 2016, so need to ‘think more carefully’ this time round. 52% is clearly not a majority in their political recipe book. The ‘think again’ promise of a second referendum, that Labour option, based on the premise of a reworked rather than re-heated EU Brexit deal. Good luck negotiating that one comrade Corbyn! We will truly be the dinner guests who never leave. Finally, the Conservative offering of BoJo’s deal, oven ready and ready to go, if he gets the votes in the Commons first. Ah yes, oven ready meals, a lovely image on the package, inevitably disappointing, and usually serves fewer diners than promised….

What else is quirky about this election? Well the impact of inappropriate social media and other reported utterances has already caused a number of candidates to throw in the towel before the campaign starting pistol has fired. Antony Calvert, planning to fight Wakefield for the Conservatives has quit over a 10-year-old post where he is said to have written that if former Libyan dictator Gaddaffi wanted to walk the streets unrecognised "he should surely have fled to Bradford". Not sure how many Libyans there are in Bradford, but I guess that’s casual racism for you…  Meanwhile the Tory candidate for Broadland, Nick Conrad, stood down for historic comments in which he said women should "keep their knickers on" in a conversation about rape on BBC Radio Norfolk. You couldn’t make it up; now where is Alan Partridge from again….. While gender and race have led to some Tory casualties, anti-Semitism has brought an early end to some Labour hopefuls. Kate Ramsden stood down in the Gordon constituency after she compared Israel to an abused child who becomes an abusive adult. Personally, if I were a Palestinian, I could see some truth in such comments, but insensitive for sure. Meanwhile, the Labour candidate for Clacton has stood down after referring to a fellow Jewish councillor as Shylock. Apparently, he didn’t realise Shylock was Jewish. Should have paid more attention during English Lit classes I guess. In the interest of political balance, I’m sure candidates from the Libs Dems, Greens and the nationalist parties have said equally crass and unpleasant things about other people/races/faiths etc but have yet to be found out. Or perhaps they are just nice people who won’t want to offend anyone, never have and never will. Or maybe they are just grey and boring….?

Finally, we have the intriguing and pretty unprecedented situation of a marmite Conservative Prime Minister who is definitely right of centre on Brexit (though interestingly more socially and economically liberal in other areas, where are the tax cut promises, and look at those public spending pledges), going up against an equally marmite Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn whose manifesto is likely to be the most left wing in a century (private school abolition, and a public expenditure price tag of £1 trillion by Tory estimates ). A Labour leader who has been openly pronounced as unfit to lead our country by a few of his former MPs including Ian Austen and John Woodcock, who went on to advocate voting for Johnson. Ouch!

So what about the crystal ball and what we might expect in December? Well, a week is a long term in politics, and the historian in me prefers to explain the past rather than predict the future. So, with fingers crossed, and all the usual caveats of ‘anything can happen and possibly will’ in the next few weeks of the campaign proper. Here are my very tentative predictions.

Extremely unlikely

A majority Labour government

A Conservative government with a 50+ majority

A majority Lib Dem/Green/SNP/PC Remain ’grand alliance’ government

Possible

A Conservative government with a small majority

A large Lib Dem/Green/SNP/PC Remain ’grand alliance’ presence which is vying for size with both Labour and the Conservatives

Most likely(?)

A hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest single party but forced to cede power and office to a Labour/Lib Dem/Green/nationalist anti-Brexit grouping. Perhaps rather like the current political arithmetic but with fewer Labour and Conservatives, and more Lib Dems, Greens and nationalists. More intriguingly, not dissimilar to 1923’s outcome!

What might this election change? Plus ca change….