by Lauren Robson-Skeete
In the midst of the continual media hysteria surrounding Donald
Trump's presidential campaign and his outlandish ‘policies’, the beginning of
the caucuses have signified that ostensibly the fight for the next US
presidency will be focused around Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Donald
Trump. The results of the republican Iowa caucus with Ted Cruz winning
momentarily brought some comfort (if you can call it that due to Cruz’s
policies being suitably radical enough for Trump) as the favourite, Trump,
failed to win the vote (although only marginally - Cruz 28%, Trump 24%).
Optimistically suggesting that the voters saw past the facade of Trump and had
turned to a slightly more ‘moderate’ candidate. Worryingly, however, the New
Hampshire caucus portrayed a different picture with Trump revelling in the
republican win with 35% and thus the hope that Trump losing would become a
regularity was wishful thinking, particularly as Jeb Bush has already conceded
his campaign opening up even more scope for Trump in the process.
Interestingly, when analysing recent 2016 Gallup polls it is
unsurprising to note the correlation between the results of the Iowa and New
Hampshire caucuses. The poll asked “what do you think is the most important
problem facing this country today?” and 70% of Americans felt the biggest
concerns were non-economic problems. This encompassed a realm of topical issues
including dissatisfaction with the government, immigration, national security,
terrorism, healthcare, racism, education, crime, poverty, and ISIS all
featuring in the top ten. Moreover, when questioned “who would best handle
these problems, the democrats or republicans?”, the republicans came out on top
with 42% compared to 37% to the democrats. Thus, the increasing enormity of
these issues offers some explanation to the rise of Trump as typically
throughout history those feeling discontent towards the government often turn
to the most radical candidate promising to eradicate the qualms of the current
flawed system with a new approach. Indeed, what seems apparent amongst all of
the front runners, both republicans and democrats, is that they attract voters
who desire profound change with the dominating theme of social issues becoming
increasingly important. But crucially, this is also where the tangible
difference lies. Despite Trump’s current support, I envisage this to dwindle
when people become more aware and informed of the other candidates policies, or
lack of in the case of Donald Trump. Thus, it will be implausible for
Trump to achieve victory as he may talk a persuasive, albeit strange game that
appeals to the ever-shrinking group left unoffended by his distinctly
controversial speeches, but even so, when it comes to his actual policies on
how he will tackle issues such as immigration and ISIS he has no firm
credibility as they bear no credentials and his supporters will be left
disappointed. Therefore, it is the likes of Bernie Sanders who emerges as the
strongest contender to become the next US president as his progressive approach
targets the fundamental issues facing America today which is quickly leaving
Hillary Clinton behind.
Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton I predict it will be another
repeat of her failed 2008 presidential campaign as it bears a striking
resemblance. Back then, she was the frontrunner and Obama was the new face with
less political experience and it appears that Bernie is set to replace Obama in
her 2016 campaign, nonetheless it will still be fiercely contested. Critically,
it is important to examine why Hillary did not win in 2008, and why she will
fail to win again in 2016. Most notably, her 2008 campaign was overshadowed by
the rise of Obama and her decision to vote in support of military action in
Iraq in 2002 proved costly. Similarly, her 2016 campaign has recently been
clouded by negative association with Wall Street adding to the lack of trust
felt by voters whom 53% have an ‘unfavourable’ view of Hillary (as conducted by
a pollster poll). Therefore, for the democrats Hillary poses herself as a
liability and it is because of this that it highly likely that Bernie Sanders
will become the next president.
The progressive and consistent stance of Sanders on the most vital
issues in America is the key to his success that will lead to a victory. He has
a long history of supporting black rights and social equality that dates back
to the 1960s, a particularly poignant issue in America, which he addressed
powerfully in a recent ad campaign featuring Erica Garner. This undoubtedly
sets him apart from the other candidates as he has been the most vociferous
about this fundamental issue which many will sympathise with
Equally, he is a strong ally of the LGBT community, something that cannot be
said for Hillary who up until 2013 opposed gay marriage and this reversal in
opinion, although welcomed, seems slightly too convenient in the run up to her
2016 campaign. As well as this, in a money centred campaign system, his
decisive move to not accept money from billionaires and his grassroots approach
yet again sets him apart, especially as four out of five of Hillary’s donors
since 1999 are Wall Street firms. Economically, Sander’s advocates reforming
the systems that perpetuate inequality such as the criminal justice system, and
creating more well-paid jobs coupled with removing tax loopholes and focusing
on reforming the tax system so multinational corporations no longer get away
with avoiding tax. Despite, what appear to be clearly focused policies Chelsea
Clinton (daughter of Hillary Clinton) recently denounced Sander’s policies for
being unachievable, however, I would argue that Hillary is too moderate and in
such a diverse country progressive goals will create a greater impact than
being overly moderate to secure safe votes. A vote for Bernie Sanders, is a
vote for a progressive agenda that will set to tackle the paramount issues
America currently faces from a largely bottom-up perspective, by a man who has
consistently demonstrated his stance on such problems and this is unparalleled
by the other candidates and why Bernie would get my vote.
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