The Iranian President is Dead - What Will Succession in Iran Look Like?

 by Marinela P

This Monday news broke that the Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. The tragic event has shrouded Iran in a mourning veil, with the president announcing five days of public mourning. Raisi will not only be missed deeply because of his hardline stance on internal policy in Iran, but his death has thrown plans of succession into disarray. Succession is an uncomfortable topic in Iran, but with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the delicate age of 85 and rumoured to be suffering with prostate cancer - such conversations are vital for the stability of Iran. 

The death of Raisi has seen many middle eastern countries extend their condolences, even Saudi Arabia, a firm foe of Iran, has expressed their concerns over the helicopter crash that killed the countries president and foreign minister. Sympathies were also extended by the rebel groups that Iran endorses, most notably were the Hamas group in Palestine who offered their condolences for the “immense loss” felt by the loss of the leader. The Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen too extended their sympathies. But the person who surely will grieve the loss of Raisi most is Khamenei. Raisi was rumoured to be in line for the position of Supreme Leader in Iran a colossal position that takes immense consideration in order to maintain stability of Iran. The death of Raisi has thrown Khamenei’s plans into disarray and has led to speculation over who will next take the prestigious role of Supreme Leader in Iran. 

The process for the selection of a supreme leader is set out in Iran's constitution and whilst it does dictate clear guidelines on the selection process of a leader they are easily manoeuvred. The selection process for a supreme leader is at surface level fairly straightforward. The issue of succession is mainly in the hands of the Assembly of Experts, the name of the group perhaps a reflection of their competence. The Assembly is an eighty-eight member institution and reflects a more democratic face of the Iranian government, with the Shia clergy in the constitution subject to election every eight years. The Assembly of candidates is tasked with providing potential candidates, these are then vetted by the Guardian council. The Guardian Council is a reflection of the views of the Supreme leader as it is the supreme leader who is responsible for the composition of the Guardian council. Whilst the process of selection is straightforward and delegated to the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council, Khamenei has effectively assumed control of the decision. The recent iteration of the Guardian Council determined by Khamenei has been derived from an increasingly hardline faction of the regime. There are two prevalent strands in Iranian politics: the hardliners and the reformists. The hardliners are hardened Islamists that hold the belief that Iran is a resistive force against the hegemonic west. Reformists include those in Iranian politics who are pragmatic moderates who are not opposed to international engagement. Khamesi whilst dictating Iranian politics into reflecting hardline views, Khamesi has further attempted to fix his succession. Prior to the death of Raisi, he had been involved in a three person committee with the assembly to shortlist candidates for succession, with Raisi being the favourite. The unfortunate event of Raisi’s death has dismantled Khamenei’s carefully crafted plan, but will it provide the opportunity for change in Iran… 

The race for supreme leader has the potential in igniting wider public participation in Iranian politics and the opportunity to reinstate reformists and modernist figures into state functions. Such ideas however, when looking at the current state of Iranian politics, are fanciful. Reform within Iranian politics is unlikely even in the face of a change of leadership. The inner circle within Iran has been constricting, enveloping only the hardliners of Iranian politics and leaving the reformists in largely bureaucratic roles. Raisi was a paragon of an Iranian hardliner and was a firm supporter of Khamesi’s transitioning of Iran into an insular state. Defiance of western ideas have been clear over the past five years, putting Khamesi’s programme of insulation into practice. In 2018 the US withdrew from a nuclear arms deal with Iran and in 2020, Qaesemi Soleimani the IRCG senior commander was assassinated. Dramatic change within Iran is highly unlikely, the programme of insulating the Iranian government has been drawn out and effective. The desire to isolate power within Iran may lead some to speculate that Khamesi may pass power to his Mojtaba, but such nepotism is seen as distasteful in Iran. Iran does not desire to be a monarchy, so the question of succession remains ambiguous as to who. 

The sudden death of Raisi is disruptive to Iran's long term plan for governance, but it has only changed the prospect of who will be supreme leader. Insularity within Iran has been entrenched by Khameni and the new supreme leader will not have the scope to change the system. The helicopter crash has not provided an opportunity for reform within Iran, but perhaps only hardened Khameni’s plan for further closing Iran's inner circle.