by Sophie Haworth
Following the Second World War, France introduced its system of ‘Allocations’ and ‘Primes’, a policy through which families would be monetarily rewarded for having numerous children, recognising the importance of repopulating the country after more than half a million wartime fatalities. Not only would these families receive cash bonuses, they would also benefit from tax breaks to further incentivise individuals to have more children. Such ardent campaigning, as demonstrated by the official governmental propaganda, was necessary given the advent of birth control, which was steadily becoming more accessible during ‘Les Trente Glorieuses’ [the thirty ‘glorious’ years, post World War 2]. Due to such interventions, the average number of children per woman increased to 3 in 1946, a 40 year high.
However, in recent years, France, as is the case with many other European countries, is suffering from a fertility rate which falls below the ‘replacement rate’. The replacement rate is the fertility rate which is necessary to maintain a population, set at 2.1 children per woman. Though amongst the highest birth rates in the EU, France has suffered a fall of 20% since 2010, with a fertility rate of just 1.68 in 2023. Like in the 60s, there are already state benefits for ‘familles nombreuses’ [large families with 3 or more children], such as a 10% parental tax bonus and subsidies on expenses such as train travel, but these seem to be inconsequential in terms of its desired pronatalist effect. The government has tried to counteract this decline with reforms to parental leave, attempting to amend the current system of extended leave with very low pay (and subsequently just a 14% takeup with women) to a 6 month scheme with far better fiscal benefits. Whether this will impact the fertility rate is yet to be seen.
By consistently falling short of the replacement rate, nations may suffer not only from gradual population decline, but be affected by the wider fallout from supporting an ageing population, a problem which French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron knows all too well. In 2023, his move to increase the pension age from 62 to 64 in order to compensate for the ageing population was met with widespread discontent, strikes and even riots across France. The intricate relationship between declining birth rates and more generalised societal problems is also demonstrated through the tendency towards elevated immigration during periods of stagnant population. Again, parallels can be drawn between today and the 60s, where France relied heavily upon immigration, especially from (former) French peripheries such as Morocco and Indochina, in order to supplement its post-war workforce. And, with generally higher birth rates amongst immigrants (with one in five children being born to immigrant mothers in France in 2017, despite immigrants making up just 10% of the population) subsequently supplement the population in general. However, given the current toxic climate (not just in France but in Europe in general - i.e. Geert Wilders and the UK’s Rwanda policy) shrouding the topic of immigration, it is unlikely that France will turn to it again in the same way.
Instead, Macron has turned to those in their 20s. The average age of French mothers has slowly been increasing, with the current average age having reached 31. Though this is not dissimilar to other comparable countries, such as the UK, it is an essential driver of his newly announced ‘major plan to tackle infertility’. He set out plans to offer free fertility tests to those over 25, and reduce the cost of IVF and other fertility treatments. It is notable, however, that such measures do not extend to that of surrogacy, an increasingly popular method of becoming parents, which is prohibited in French law. From an objective perspective, Macron’s plans have the potential to encourage birth in France, but critically lack measures to address some of the fundamental concerns of prospective parents. It has been found that fears regarding societal problems like climate change are influencing people’s reproductive decisions, amongst other issues such as affordability, as well as fundamentally, desire. Though the latter is the hardest to change, it is clear that improving the two former deterrents should, theoretically, solve Macron’s problems. At the very least, it is an interesting concept to fuel the fight against climate change.
Bibliography
Why Macron Wants France to Have More Babies (youtube.com)
The populist right wants you to make more babies. The question is how – POLITICO
Birth rates continued to fall in 2023 in aging France (lemonde.fr)
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