Will COVID Restrictions Be Gone for Good?

by Hamish Orr

A few days ago, Monday 21st February, the government recently announced their planned roadmap for the releasing of COVID restrictions in England. The plans, which set out the earliest dates that different restrictions will be lifted, including the much anticipated 21st June, have all been set out with a lack of certainty as the government is working on data not dates. The government wants to be clear that the dates set out in the roadmap are the earliest that restrictions could be eased and Boris Johnson said in an interview, ‘Nothing is guaranteed, it all depends on the way that we continue to be prudent and follow the guidance in each stage.’ He also suggested that he is very optimistic about reaching the release of restrictions by 21st of June. But will this cause another surge in cases, or more importantly hospitalisations? 

First of all, it is important to note that the government has been very clear that it is working off data, not dates and that all the dates mentioned in the roadmap are at the earliest and some delays in the raising of restrictions are possible. However this has already created a huge problem with expectations which are hard to manage with large gatherings being planned shortly after the lifting of restrictions which might not be able to go ahead. 

A report by Imperial College London, outlining the risks of raising restrictions too quickly on causing increasing infections, outlines the risks of lockdown easing too quickly. The research shows that vaccine uptake is not enough to completely prevent rises in cases and hospitalisations due to having a large proportion of the population remaining unvaccinated. (U18 and anti vaxxers to name a few categories.) It is however known that we have vaccinated the vast majority of at risk groups have now been vaccinated. This means that although cases will likely rise in young people this will not lead to the same level of hospitalisations. Despite this the R number is expected to rise above one in the coming months with the restrictions that have been laid out however the effects of this will be significantly less significant as those that are most vulnerable have been vaccinated once and soon to be vaccinated again. 

Finally there are many other factors that should be considered when deciding whether or not to reopen the economy, most notably the devastating effect that lockdowns have had on local businesses. From bars, restaurants and cinemas to gyms, airlines and holidays thousands of businesses have been crushed by the damage that the pandemic has caused. Secondly, the mental health implications of the pandemic, although hard to measure the full extent, have been challenging for many. Would keeping restrictions for longer do more damage than good? 

The government has done an excellent job at handling the vaccine rollout which has put us in a position to get rid of lockdown restrictions in England for good. Getting back to normal will take some time and COVID is not going away anytime soon, the knock on effects of such a large pandemic are unprecedented and even if the lockdown measures are lifted there is much more that is needed to take this virus down to a level on which it can be deemed a reminiscence of the past however it is our hope, and those of the government, that we won’t have to ensure another lockdown.

Sources: 

https://t.co/HROcStNw3w

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51706225