Lent, stolen or gone for good? Some reflection on the 2019 Euro elections

by Simon Lemieux

There was a saying, I think in the 1980s during the Thatcher years: ‘If the Tories get up your nose – pick(it): a reference to trade union and other assorted left wing militants opposition to Conservative trade union reforms. Well, in 2019, if the Tories get up your nose over Brexit – vote for the Brexit Party. And for many die-hard Labourites, the answer appeared to be vote Lib Dem, or Green or even Change UK. 

We have truly witnessed one of the most dramatic, rule re-writing national elections in modern British political history. The question I want to address here is: were those Tory and Labour votes merely lent to other parties, to be handed back when we have an election that really, really matters i.e. a general election? Or were they given up for good, in many cases – i.e. are we witnessing the permanent rise of (1) a new populist conservatism shorn of those Tory liberals and moderates and (2) a resurgent Liberal Democrat party that will take the progressive middle ground, displacing an increasingly sidelined left-wing Labour Party and entering into a partnership with the Greens? Such a scenario is possible, but speculative as we shall see. 

So, before I attempt to answer I have just posed, what are the ‘takeaways’ from this election?

What the chart tells us about the parties

1. It was a phenomenally bad night for the Tories. To come fifth in a national election is unprecedented for a party that, let’s face it, won an overall majority in 2015 and remained the largest single party after the miscalculated tactic of going for election in 2017. Not only are they reduced to 4 MEPs, they failed to secure the largest number of votes in any local government district.  Yep, even in the truest blue counties such as Buckingham and Surrey, you will look in vain for a Tory victory. If this election had been fought using FPTP enlarged constituencies, the Conservatives would have ended up with zero MEPs. Put simply, around 60% of people who voted Tory in the 2014 Euro elections deserted the party this time round.

2. But it was a shambolic night too for Labour. As Her Majesty’s Official Opposition, they should be waiting in the wings to assume power and presenting themselves as the credible future government. Not a hope, on these results. Labour, too, was devastated in many of its heartlands such as London and Wales. Again, to put it simply, over 40 % of 2014’s Labour voters jumped ship.

3. The real winners were the Brexit Party, who not only reaffirmed that UKIP without Nigel is like (insert own double act or embedded combination here – I’ll go for Wise without Morecambe), but also pulled off a remarkable coup for a party barely weeks old. Not only did they mop up most of the ‘kipper vote’, itself historically high in 2014, but also took a fair few Tories (who, remember, did badly anyhow in 2014 when UKIP won the Euro elections) and probably some Labour votes in some of their strongholds –parts of the Midlands and the North East for example.

4. The Lib Dems also did very well. They actually tripled their vote from 2014, when they only secured 1 MEP and had a pretty wretched night. In fact, they enjoyed a larger vote increase than the Brexit Party if you discount the latter’s ‘inherited’ UKIP vote.

5. Ditto for the Greens – again a significant increase, maybe helped not just by a disenchanted mood among Britain’s left-of-centre voters, but also the recent attention given to environmental issues: Extinction Rebellion, Greta Thunberg et al.

6. Change UK changed... absolutely nothing. There were better alternatives on offer for Remain voters. Bigger brands, more established labels. Heidi Allen and co just didn’t have the pulling power compared to the other ‘new kids on the block’ who of course weren’t new at all and actually looked reassuringly diverse in terms of age, gender and ethnicity. Something UKIP I fear, never quite managed to deliver or convey.

7. Above all, the message of these results spells out more definitely than ever that voters punish divided parties. The school pupils reading this piece can probably relate to a similar concept. I’d wager that the sort of teacher you really hate is neither the overly strict nor the well-meaning incompetent, but the inconsistent: the teacher you never know where you are with them, who is confused themselves and thus confuses you. You crave certainty (and I guess a bit of confidence in helping you to pass exams helps too!). The same goes for voters. As the ever-excellent Laura Kuennssberg put it during the BBC’s election night coverage, this was a vote for consistency. With the Brexit Party you knew what you were voting for: the certainty of Brexit, deal or no deal (where is Noel Edmonds when you need him, to make a party election broadcast!). With the Lib Dems and the Greens (and the SNP in Scotland and PC in Wales), you were voting for the certainty of no Brexit covered with the democratic fig leaf of a second vote, a ‘People’s Vote’ – which for me always begs the bemusing question of what the first vote was. I thought the people voted then; mind you, I did see a flying saucer over the polling station, so perhaps aliens voted too. Sorry, I forgot: the people got it wrong in 2016 so it can’t really have been a true people’s vote. For a second vote read: a re-match we think we can win. After all, no one calls for a vote they don’t think they can win do they - except possibly our two most recent Prime Ministers and whoever persists in getting the UK to enter Eurovision…

What the chart tells us about Brexit

In a word – deadlock. Total up the combined Brexit and UKIP vote and you get to around 35%; add up the solid Remain vote (Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK and the nationalists) and you get to around 40%. Assume most of the much diminished Tory vote is Brexit-leaning and the remaining Labour vote is split 50/50 and I reckon you get into classic video-referee territory. This was not an emphatic vote for a hard Brexit but nor was it victory for a second referendum/no Brexit. Three years on from the historic vote of 2016, and the Government has failed to find a compromise that gathers enough MPs’ votes, Parliament has failed to come up with a better consensus solution and now the people can’t speak with anything resembling a united voice either. All the while, Brussels and our European neighbours must alternate between grim satisfaction (‘We told you we weren’t going to make it easy for you’) and outright frustration (‘Take me to your leader?’ syndrome). Like the dinner party guest who fails to take the hint even when the dishwasher is loaded and you are in your nightwear, we are still asking for another mint with the decaf coffee. Will we ever go?!

What the chart tells us about voting

To return to the title, the short answer is: the votes weren’t stolen, many were lent, and some are probably gone for good. The victories for the Brexit Party and the Lib Dem/Greens/nationalists were not because they offered something attractive and radical, thus ‘stealing’ votes from Labour and Tories. No, the front door was left open with a big sign ‘thieves welcome’. Lack of clarity, bungled negotiations over Brexit, failure to get deals through the Commons - all this and more can be firmly laid at the combined leaderships of both main parties and their assorted backbenchers. It was like shooting at an open goal.

Many votes were undoubtedly ‘lent’. I doubt anyone as tribally Labour as Alastair Campbell will actually become the new poster boy for the Lib Dems. This was the opportunity par excellence for a protest vote, even better than local elections. I do actually care about my bins and dog mess on the pavement, but how many of us realistically expect these freshly minted MEPS to serve out a full term - although getting on for half the population actually do want that outcome. Come a general election and things could be different. It will be less about Brexit, there will be a new Tory leader, the twin bogeys of Prime Minister Corbyn and a no-deal Brexit (assuming Mrs May’s successor is of that persuasion) will be played up for all they are worth by the two old parties. Who knows, Labour might by then have a clear Brexit policy which unites them, and the Tories might have all come together around ‘a deal you can believe in’. Maybe I saw pigs, not flying saucers, in the sky…

Some votes may well have gone for good. Some voters have long memories and may find their new voting habits more congenial, though I suspect that will be truer for the progressive/Remain vote than the Brexit voter. Whatever transpires, the next election will be an interesting one to watch. As 2019 has shown, voters have never been more volatile. A destabilised electorate in and for uncertain times.

What the chart tells us about the future

Famously, a week is a long time in politics so the short answer (again) is probably not a lot that is yet clear. However, I’ll stick my neck out in a few areas.

1. Change UK will enter an electoral pact/strategic alliance with the Lib Dems if their current MPs want to survive. I think some link up with the Greens is logical too. A radical centre may well merge: pro-EU, in favour of electoral reform, environmentalist and inclusive. Watch this space.

2. For the Tories, it very much depends on their new leader. Unless they are a committed Brexiteer, a tough negotiator with Brussels with no deal as a possibility, Nigel will have them for breakfast and lunch too. The true Brexit vote cannot afford to be split any more than the Remain vote can. An electoral pact with the Brexit party makes sense but I don’t see it happening. Lance the Brexit boil somehow/anyhow, and Nigel’s work on earth is effectively done and the Tory party can pick up where it left off, if it can remember where that was.

3. For Labour, I think the future is potentially grimmest of all. A resurgent and radical liberal movement could do for them what the SNP has already effectively done for them in Scotland. There is a crossroads between comrade Corbyn’s red-meat socialism, which has the potential for mass (?) appeal (renationalisation, significant wealth redistribution et al) and a return to New Labour/Third Way provided the Greens/Lib Dems/Change UK haven’t already got their towels out on the beach first.

4. UKIP – Dignitas – Switzerland of course is not in the EU. Proof again that smaller parties without big personalities and/or distinctive policies (and Tommy Robinson isn’t quite the right sort of personality, I hasten to add), get nowhere. Unlike Change UK, I don’t think an electoral pact with anyone is either attractive or necessarily wanted by others. RIP?

We do indeed as the Chinese proverb reminds us ‘live in interesting times’.